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  • The US government signed a bill which in essence reprimanded the Chinese authorities in relation to their actions with Hong Kong protestors. This provides an added complication to trade War negotiations, with Chinese authorities threatening retaliation (sale of USTs, managing the exchange rate to the detriment of US interests, curbing exports of rare earth minerals, banning drafters of the Bill from entering Chinese territories, boycott of US goods etc.). Notably, there is considerably more commentary on the debt issues facing the Chinese economy with the increase in Household debt being particularly perturbing.
  • A review of the policies and actions of the ECB are expected to be undertaken by its newly elected President, Christine Lagarde. It is strongly rumored that there will be a slight change in the inflation target where it will move to a cleaner 2%. There is an acknowledgment that the presently used EZ inflation figure (HICP) has its drawbacks with housing costs materially underestimated. Other areas that the review may cover include the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy and the ECB’s role (if any) in Green related issues.
  • The YouGov MRP poll suggests the Conservative party will win 359 seats in the upcoming General Election and thereby offering a strong mandate for Boris Johnson and his policies. The MRP poll has received a lot of attention based on the size of its sample size and its relative accuracy at the last election. The result of the poll saw EURGBP (see chart) trade at close to year lows but also inspired Dominic Cummings to issue a warning against complacency.