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  • The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises. The Federal Reserve is likely, in the short term, to continue to provide verbal support to the economy as they await developments in the Trade War saga and the impact of their three cuts in short term rates on the underlying economy.
  • Christine Lagarde, in what was perceived as her first big speech in her new role as President of the ECB, highlighted the need for fiscal stimulus. In fact, this is something that she has already referenced in her previous role at the IMF and is consistent with her predecessors (Mario Draghi) forlorn requests. A review of the existing parameters of the Stability and Growth pact may be required.
  • The EZ PMI figure for the manufacturing sector (see chart) was released last week. Any figure below 50 indicates a contraction in activity and unsurprisingly based on trade war headwinds it remains comfortably below this figure. The most positive view of this release is that the pace of contraction seems to have stabilized.